Solo Mining Odds: How to Calculate Your Chance of Finding a Block

The solo mining probability formula

Solo mining is pure probability. Your chance of finding a block in any given 10-minute window equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. The formula is straightforward:

P(block per 10 min) = Your Hashrate ÷ Network Hashrate

As of early 2026, the Bitcoin network hashrate hovers around 800–900 EH/s. A single Antminer S21 XP at 270 TH/s represents about 0.00003% of that total — which translates to an expected time of roughly 2–3 years between block finds at current difficulty. But variance is the key word: you could find a block tomorrow or in five years.

Expected time to block by hashrate

*Estimates based on ~850 EH/s network hashrate. Actual times vary with difficulty adjustments.

Understanding variance

"Expected time to block" is an average, not a guarantee. Solo mining follows a Poisson distribution — there is roughly a 63% chance you find at least one block within the expected period, and a 37% chance you don't. Some miners get lucky early; others wait longer. This is why solo mining is often called the "Bitcoin lottery."

Pro Tip: Monitor your real-time estimated odds on the MySoloPool dashboard — it calculates time-to-block based on your actual live hashrate and current network difficulty.

Does solo mining make financial sense?

The expected value (EV) of solo mining equals the expected value of pool mining — the math is the same over a long enough period. The difference is variance. Pool mining gives smooth daily payouts; solo mining gives rare but massive payouts. If you can absorb the electricity cost during dry spells, solo mining lets you keep the full block reward when you hit.

Use the Hashrate Farm profitability calculator to model expected daily BTC earnings at different price scenarios, then compare that to the solo block reward. Ready to start? Point your miner at MySoloPool — setup takes under 5 minutes with no registration required.

Need a miner? Browse ASIC miners on Hashrate Farm with hosting contracts included.